OSRS Dry Calculator
How dry are you? Your luck against other players at any drop rate, your chance by any kill count and the kills for 50, 90 or 99%, with every monster built in.
Your chance as the kills add up
The chance of at least one drop by each kill count, with where you are now.
Kills for a given chance
Counted from zero kills, with the points your kill count has already passed. From where you stand now the same counts start again.
| Chance | Kills | Time | You |
|---|
From here
How your luck compares
| Drops | Chance | This many or fewer |
|---|
Finishing the set
Tick every drop you want from this table. The figures are for having all of them at least once.
Every kill is its own roll. The game keeps no count of your bad luck, so a long dry streak does not make the next kill any likelier to pay, and the kills for a given chance always start from now. A few drops are the exception, with a guarantee or a rate that climbs: Vorkath's head on the 50th kill, the tattered Kq head on the 256th, the Thread of Elidinis. The drop rate is an average, not a deadline. At exactly the drop rate in kills, about 37 players in 100 still have nothing. Where a monster rolls its table more than once a kill, the rate shown is per roll and the chances here are per kill. For a chest, a casket or a crate, one kill is one opening. Raid rewards are left out, because their chance depends on points: the ToA calculator works the Tombs of Amascut out from raid level and points. Drop rates checked against the OSRS Wiki on 18 September 2026.
How dry am I? How it is worked out
A drop is plain RNG, rolled fresh on every kill. One with a drop rate of 1 in 512 has a 511 in 512 chance of not appearing on a kill. For it to miss on every one of your kills, that has to happen every time in a row.
At 1 in 512, half of all players have the drop by 355 kills, nine in ten by 1,178 and 99 in 100 by 2,356. One player in a hundred is still dry after that, and with thousands of people hunting the same item, somebody always is.
Why "on rate" is not a coin flip
Killing a monster as many times as its drop rate gives about a 63% chance of at least one drop, whatever the rate. The average is pulled up by the unlucky few who take three or four times as long, so most players finish sooner than the rate and a few finish much later. The halfway point sits at about 0.69 times the rate.
More than one drop
Some things take several of the same drop: five venator shards for the bow, a second whip, a stack of zenyte shards. Set the number you want and every figure above moves to match, so the 90% line for five shards at 1 in 100 is 798 kills against 230 for one.
With drops already in the bag the question changes from "how dry" to "how does this compare". The table counts the chance of every number of drops in your kills, so three in 2,000 at 1 in 512 can be read both ways: how many players have three or fewer, and how many have three or more.
Finishing a whole table
Wanting every unique from a boss takes much longer than any one of them, because the last item has to arrive on its own. Three drops at 1 in 512 each take 939 kills on average to complete, against 512 for one. One roll of a drop table gives one item, so two uniques never land on the same roll, and the set block counts it that way for any mix of rates. Pieces that drop in a fixed order with no duplicates, like the three parts of the brimstone ring or the abyssal bludgeon, are quicker than that: treat them as one drop you need three of, and read the table of drops in your kills.
Update history
Every change to this calculator
- Calculator added